OPEC scrambling to keep oil prices stable (and high) as it meets Wednesday

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Wednesday to weigh how best to maintain stable — but very high — crude oil prices in the face of rising U.S. shale oil production and jostling among the members of the cartel that hope to expand production in 2014.

Analysts expect OPEC to hold its production ceiling steady at 30 million barrels a day, where it has been since January 2012. But oil experts do not expect the group to resolve how much Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s main swing producer, might trim its output in the coming year to make room for potential new supplies from Iraq, Libya, West Africa, Texas, North Dakota and maybe Iran.

U.S. output has grown about 15 percent this year, adding about 950,000 barrels a day, or about 1 percent, to world supplies, according to the International Energy Agency. The new U.S. supplies have failed to significantly lower world prices as many analysts had predicted, but they have helped prevent a further run-up in prices during supply disruptions in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq.

A year ago, many analysts were forecasting lower crude prices in 2013 because of weak global demand and the boom in U.S. shale oil supplies. But international crude prices have stayed near historic highs, despite Saudi Arabia boosting its own output to record levels of more than 10 million barrels a day over the summer. The average weighted price of OPEC crude oil in 2013 has been more than $105 a barrel for the third consecutive year, four times the price a decade ago.

“To some extent, U.S. production growth is keeping the price barely tethered,” said Robert McNally, a former National Security Council member specializing in energy who is president of the Rapidan Group, a consulting firm. “We’re keeping the market at low boil by giving it all we’ve got, and that to me is not a well-managed market.”

One reason: Oil consumption has been rising slowly but steadily. On Monday, oil prices rose on news that manufacturing indexes grew faster than expected in the United States and China. The price of the benchmark crude oil West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.2 percent to $93.82 a barrel for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of Brent, the more widely used international benchmark grade of crude oil, rose 1.6 percent to $111.45 a barrel.

In a Nov. 25 speech in Vienna, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla S. el-Badri saidthe organization expects worldwide demand to grow by 1 million barrels a day in 2014 as growth in India and China offset a slight decline in consumption in industrialized nations. Badri said OPEC expects supplies outside member countries to grow by 1.2 million barrels a day.

But Edward Morse, head of global commodities research at Citigroup, said supplies outside OPEC could grow between 1.5 million and 1.8 million barrels a day. “Non-OPEC production alone should be enough to satisfy demand growth,” he said. Moreover, inventories in the industrialized nations are big enough to cover 58 days’ needs, more than the five-year average. On the well-supplied U.S. Gulf Coast, Saudi Arabia is discounting some of its crude oil to maintain its share of the market there, Morse said.

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